Generation Brexit

Economic forecasting - Project Fear or Reality Check?

19
123
6
36

The past few weeks has seen both the UK government and the Bank of England release economic forecasts about the possible impact of Brexit.

Here is a summary of what the UK government economic forecast says https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46366162

And here is an overview of the Bank of England forecast https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46377309

We want to know what you think about this economic forecasting.

  • Was the government and the Bank of England right to release these economic forecasts?
  • Or would it have been better not to make this information public?
  • Do you think these economic forecasts will affect how MPs vote on the UK Withdrawal Agreement, and should it?
  • Do these economic forecasts influence your own views on either the Withdrawal Agreement or Brexit, why or why not?
More >

 

Filters

Status Labels

Status Labels

Top Contributors

  1. Haoyu Xu
    73 pts
  2. Rachel Tong
    72 pts
  3. Pakhi Gupta
    61 pts
  4. Jina Shi
    55 pts
  5. Jessica Wang
    55 pts

View leaderboard

Sort by

On the question whether UK MPs should look at the economic forecasts? Yes, but as always politics comes first, only then economics. All MPs are well aware of having to support their voting constituencies and thus do not look necessarily at the economic impact. On the other hand, who can blame them for maybe looking past the economic reports which on the official side at least highlight the obvious: the UK is better off in the EU than out. That is nothing to work with as the vote has happened. 

Alexander Dossche
by Alexander Dossche
1 Votes
Comments 0
Alexander Dossche

Economic forecasting is more like the so-called CNN effect of the media. There is relatively little proof that economic forecasts have affected the vote. Indeed, now again forecasts on the different scenario's do not seem to change the political debate. As they are of so little effect on the public debate, there is no reason to stop them. Indeed, they will be even of good use when the UK has left the EU, allowing for working with the prediction that was set for that specific path. 

Alexander Dossche
by Alexander Dossche
1 Votes
Comments 0
Alexander Dossche

I think publishing economic forecasts is necessary. While predictions can be uncertain, there will no doubt be some kind of economic impact from Brexit that will be felt by the public. The main issue is how do we move beyond this public, and political, mistrust and dismissal of 'experts' that has been so prevalent in the Brexit debate, both in the run up to the referendum, and after? I doubt that publishing these forecasts has done much to change anyone's initial views on Brexit, as concrete...

Alana Roberts
by Alana Roberts
1 Votes
Comments 0
Alana Roberts

In my personal opinion, forecasting the economic effects of Brexit has not necessarily worked out. The predictions before the referendum of what the UK economy would look like if the UK decided to leave were heavily pessimistic and do not correspond with the reality of the situation. These economic forecasts must thus be taken with a grain of salt.

Toon Hollevoet
by Toon Hollevoet
1 Votes
Comments 0
Toon Hollevoet

While the Bank of England’s predictions regarding the future of the UK’s economy post-Brexit are a stark economic reality check on how harmful leaving the Single Market will be for Britain, the newly released legal advice from the Attorney General is equally a reality check politically. It proves how little power the UK has over the EU legally when it comes to trying to leave the customs union and prevent hard border checks between Ireland and Northern Ireland at the same time. The legal...

Jessica Wang
by Jessica Wang
6 Votes
Comments 0
Jessica Wang

While MPs prepare to vote on the Brexit deal, many investors in the US and Asia have abandoned the pound and stepped out of the market. Without greater clarity, overseas investors are happy just to stay away. They’ve pulled back from trading sterling because of previous intense volatility in the pound. For example, December 4 brought a perfect example of that, with the pound increasing by 1 per cent when the EU indicated that the UK could scrap its idea to leave the EU. But, 10 minutes...

Dev Devnani
by Dev Devnani
-1 Votes
Comments 1
Dev Devnani
Idea thumbnail

See photo.

Eduardo Scheuren
by Eduardo Scheuren
2 Votes
Comments 0
Eduardo Scheuren

Now that these economic forecasts have been made public it is interesting to think about whether or not they should have been made public in the first place. Predictions while not necessarily completely accurate have a lot of power when it comes to influencing people. People tend to think of predictions as very probable forecasts and therefore tend to base their decisions on them. As a result the forecasts can have a major influence in the decisions regarding Brexit. The problem with this is...

Pakhi Gupta
by Pakhi Gupta
4 Votes
Comments 0
Pakhi Gupta

The economic forecast of the impact on Brexit perhaps may only be a forecast, however, it does have the power to effect the present day’s decisions. Clearly reliable evidence and revered researchers bolster these forecasts, since they have come from reliable sources like the government and the Bank of England. Therefore there is definitely a truth to them; however, no one really knows what the future holds. While forecasts are only predictions they do have the power to influence how...

Pakhi Gupta
by Pakhi Gupta
5 Votes
Comments 0
Pakhi Gupta

Economic forecast is useful for businesses and prospective investors to prepare for whatever chaos might happen as a result of Brexit. However, forecast is merely prediction and even experts can't guarantee everything they projected will hold true. Sometimes forecasts become reality due to self-fulfilling prophecy. For example, when people are informed of stunted growth or stagnated economy, they'd be less willing to spend and save more. These decreased spendings would in turn make the...

Nhi Duong
by Nhi Duong
5 Votes
Comments 1
Nhi Duong
Share