Generation Brexit

NEW CHALLENGE: Economic forecasting - Project Fear or Reality Check?

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The past week has seen both the UK government and the Bank of England release economic forecasts about the possible impact of Brexit.

Here is a summary of what the UK government economic forecast says https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46366162

And here is an overview of the Bank of England forecast https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46377309

We want to know what you think about this economic forecasting.

  • Was the government and the Bank of England right to release these economic forecasts?
  • Or would it have been better not to make this information public?
  • Do you think these economic forecasts will affect how MPs vote on the UK Withdrawal Agreement, and should it?
  • Do these economic forecasts influence your own views on either the Withdrawal Agreement or Brexit, why or why not?
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While the Bank of England’s predictions regarding the future of the UK’s economy post-Brexit are a stark economic reality check on how harmful leaving the Single Market will be for Britain, the newly released legal advice from the Attorney General is equally a reality check politically. It proves how little power the UK has over the EU legally when it comes to trying to leave the customs union and prevent hard border checks between Ireland and Northern Ireland at the same time. The legal...

Jessica Wang
by Jessica Wang
2 Votes
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Jessica Wang

While MPs prepare to vote on the Brexit deal, many investors in the US and Asia have abandoned the pound and stepped out of the market. Without greater clarity, overseas investors are happy just to stay away. They’ve pulled back from trading sterling because of previous intense volatility in the pound. For example, December 4 brought a perfect example of that, with the pound increasing by 1 per cent when the EU indicated that the UK could scrap its idea to leave the EU. But, 10 minutes...

Dev Devnani
by Dev Devnani
-1 Votes
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Dev Devnani
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Eduardo Scheuren
by Eduardo Scheuren
2 Votes
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Eduardo Scheuren

Now that these economic forecasts have been made public it is interesting to think about whether or not they should have been made public in the first place. Predictions while not necessarily completely accurate have a lot of power when it comes to influencing people. People tend to think of predictions as very probable forecasts and therefore tend to base their decisions on them. As a result the forecasts can have a major influence in the decisions regarding Brexit. The problem with this is...

Pakhi Gupta
by Pakhi Gupta
3 Votes
Comments 0
Pakhi Gupta

The economic forecast of the impact on Brexit perhaps may only be a forecast, however, it does have the power to effect the present day’s decisions. Clearly reliable evidence and revered researchers bolster these forecasts, since they have come from reliable sources like the government and the Bank of England. Therefore there is definitely a truth to them; however, no one really knows what the future holds. While forecasts are only predictions they do have the power to influence how...

Pakhi Gupta
by Pakhi Gupta
4 Votes
Comments 0
Pakhi Gupta

Economic forecast is useful for businesses and prospective investors to prepare for whatever chaos might happen as a result of Brexit. However, forecast is merely prediction and even experts can't guarantee everything they projected will hold true. Sometimes forecasts become reality due to self-fulfilling prophecy. For example, when people are informed of stunted growth or stagnated economy, they'd be less willing to spend and save more. These decreased spendings would in turn make the...

Nhi Duong
by Nhi Duong
4 Votes
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Nhi Duong
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This is simply a fear tactic, this is exactly the type of underhanded behaviour used in the leave campaign and is a large part of the reason we are in this mess in the first place. These figures are not what they seem to be at face value and they are designed to undermine the things that people have realised we will lose when leaving the EU and what the EU has done for us. The timing of this, just before May's key vote on her agreement in Parliament is a clear scare tactic designed to make...

Caitlin McDonald-Curry
by Caitlin McDonald-Curry
7 Votes
Comments 0
Caitlin McDonald-Curry

Based on recent reports from reputable sources, the UK could expect it’s economy to shrink relative to pre-Brexit UK in the coming years, based on the current deals that May has proposed. However, I do not believe that the reports are anything beyond what was reasonably expected, and ultimately won’t play a large role in affecting May’s ability to gather votes. I believe most leavers understood the economic implications, and made a willing sacrifice of the economic benefits for political...

Adam Xie
by Adam Xie
9 Votes
Comments 0
Adam Xie

Unless the studies are found to be flawed, these economic forecasts should be released to the public. There should always be information made readily available if it affects so many people unless of course, the info pertains to a matter of national security. This would not only make the following discussions more informed, but it would also allow people to more accurately plot their future course. Shutting out information when it should it be shared will only lead to a less prosperous society.

Stanley Law
by Stanley Law
8 Votes
Comments 0
Stanley Law

Along with an economic debate comes the ideological stance that Brexit should occur in a particular way, or no deal should be made at all. While national sovereignty and upholding values is important, the economic forecasts are a necessary to remind citizens and the government of the urgency of a deal. Under no deal, the consequences are drastic, disruptive, and long lasting. In order to reach a deal, compromises must be made in Parliament and in negotiations. While the dramatic figures may...

Jina Shi
by Jina Shi
9 Votes
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Jina Shi
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