Generation Brexit

Cost of Brexit of 50b Euros is worth

It is very useful to get an idea of the size of the UK government expenditure. The total bill for 2016–17 is £772 billion. So if met over a single year it would be 6% of spending. Quite a chunk, about equivalent to our yearly defense budget. Of course it won’t be incurred over a single year it could easily be spread over ten years with a more manageable £5 billion a year or 0.6% of expenditure. It terms of our GDP its about a third of that or 0.2%. And thus, I think the 50b Euros is negligible, most likely as that’s only under half of our current annual net contribution to the EU budget, and a fairly small percentage of our GDP. Now if Britain were to be given 24 hours to pay in cash, that would be challenging and potentially disruptive, but any reasonable payment plan will have no noticeable effect. And the BBC will keep up the narrative of “yes we’re growing but it would have been higher within the EU” and they will continue to forget that we were told for the past decade before the referendum that the inflation target was 2%, that we were told that the deflation and low inflation after the crash was a bad thing and that suddenly inflation at the BoE target is a bad thing.

 

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